"Geopolitical Unrest in Niger: A Battle for Influence and Resources"
"What is happening in Africa?
The relatively unknown and obscure nation of Niger has experienced a coup d’état that has ousted its President from power. France is expressing strong concern, even going as far as to threaten a potential invasion of Niger to restore democracy and reinstate the constitutional government. Meanwhile, the United States is considering imposing sanctions on Niger, and neighboring countries are divided on whether to support Niger, impose sanctions, or potentially intervene militarily. This raises the question: Is Africa on the brink of war, and could this crisis escalate into a larger, more significant conflict? Let's delve into the details and try to understand the unfolding situation.
Geography of the region.
Niger is situated within the Sahel region, located to the south of the Sahara Desert. This region, often referred to as Africa's "coup belt," is characterized by its challenges – political instability, economic turmoil, military coups, separatist tensions, and religious extremism. Many of the Sahel states, including Niger, were formerly under French colonial rule. Although these nations are technically independent, they continue to face various forms of indirect control or influence from France. Notably, in 2013, France led a military intervention in Mali, involving around 15,000 troops (with approximately 5,000 contributed by France itself). While the stated purpose was to stabilize Mali, underlying motivations included securing access to Niger's valuable uranium deposits.
Niger is a landlocked country in Central Western Africa, sharing borders with Algeria, Libya, Chad, Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, and others. The nation comprises diverse ethnic groups, including the Hausa, Zarma, Songhai, Tuareg, Fula, and Kanuri peoples. Over 99% of Niger's population follows Islam, with around 81% identifying as Sunni Muslims and approximately 6.5% as Shia Muslims.
Historical context
France maintained colonial control over Niger from the 1880s until its formal independence in 1960. Despite gaining independence, Niger has maintained a close relationship with France over the years. However, the broader Sahel region faces security challenges, including the presence of armed groups like the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), linked to Al Qaeda. Niger is a critical partner for both France and the United States in the fight against terrorism. The country is viewed as a key ally against threats from groups like Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, and the Islamic State. Notably, Niger is among the Sahel nations that have not yet deepened their cooperation with Russia. Before the recent coup, Niger hosted a contingent of approximately 1,500 French soldiers, with military bases also hosting personnel from Germany and the United States. With this background in mind, let's explore the details of the coup itself.
Current Situation
The coup commenced on July 26, 2023, in the capital city of Niamey, Niger. Members of the presidential guard acted against President Mohammed Basum, who is seen by some as influenced by French interests. The president was removed from power in a move that took place according to a typical coup d’état scenario. In response to the coup, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – a regional bloc with influence from both France and the United States – swiftly condemned the coup and called for the release of President Basum. The international community, including France, the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations, all denounced the power grab.
The following day, on July 27, Niger's army declared allegiance to the forces behind the coup. General Abdu Sikidu Isa, the army's chief of staff, explained that this decision aimed to prevent a violent confrontation between different factions within the military. The coup leaders asserted that their intervention was necessary to save the country from a perceived decline, referring to foreign influence and colonial forces. As the crisis unfolded, ECOWAS convened an emergency summit to discuss potential actions for restoring constitutional order in Niger. The African Union (AU) also issued an ultimatum for the military government to reinstate the democratically elected leadership. France and the EU suspended financial support for Niger, while the United States threatened sanctions.
The situation rapidly escalated, with potential consequences including military intervention by ECOWAS, France, or even other external actors. The presence of Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, adds an intriguing dimension. Wagner has a growing presence in Africa and is associated with various activities, including support for certain governments and rebel groups. As the crisis evolves, it is uncertain how events will unfold. The situation in Niger has the potential to impact regional stability and broader geopolitical dynamics. While the exact outcome remains uncertain, the situation underscores the complex web of interests and influences at play in the Sahel region. On July 26th, a coup took place in Niger, involving the detention of the President and the dispersal of his supporters as they approached the presidential complex. The coup followed a standard procedure similar to a coup d'état. Edward Luthwa Kudita's book explores coup strategies from an academic perspective, although I strongly advise against attempting one. The coup prompted swift condemnation from various international entities. The West African bloc, known as ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), along with the African Union (AU), criticized the coup and called for the release of President Basum. The US, France, EU, and UN all denounced the power grab. Shortly after the news of the coup, a group of soldiers announced the successful overthrow of the government on national television. On July 27th, Niger's Army declared allegiance to the defense and security forces that orchestrated the coup, aiming to prevent a deadly confrontation among different factions. Foreign leaders, including Germany, expressed concern, while France landed a military aircraft in Niger despite airspace closure. By July 28th, General Abdul Rahman Chiani, head of Niger's Presidential Guard, declared himself the head of a transitional government. He suspended the constitution and cited the intervention as necessary to thwart the country's gradual decline and to remove perceived colonial influences. Meanwhile, ECOWAS and France sought a return to constitutional order, and the Russian Wagner Group hinted at its involvement in the coup. On July 29th, the EU, France, and the US imposed sanctions and suspended financial support to Niger. ECOWAS held an emergency summit, demanding the reinstatement of President Basum within a week or face further measures. Financial sanctions were imposed on the coup leaders and Niger by ECOWAS, freezing transactions between member states and Niger.
The African Union issued a 15-day ultimatum on July 30th for Niger's military government to restore the democratically elected government. Tensions rose as France warned against attacks on its interests. On July 31st, coup leaders claimed that France had been authorized by the deposed government to attack the presidential palace, a claim disputed by the toppled administration. In the following days, diplomatic relations were strained, with various countries suspending cooperation and offering support for or against the coup. Uranium prices fluctuated, and border reopening were announced. Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso condemned sanctions, with Guinea comparing them to its own experience following a 2020 coup. As of August 2nd, an Italian military plane evacuated individuals from Niger, and border restrictions remained in effect. The situation continues to evolve amid historical contexts and geopolitical complexities. One of the examples is the CFA franc, which is the currency used by 14 African countries. There's an Eastern and Western version, but they are essentially the same thing. So, what is CFA? CFA initially stood for "Colonies Françaises d'Afrique," meaning French African colonies, until 1958. After 1958, CFA stood for "Communauté Financière d'Afrique," which translates to the African Financial Community. So, they essentially rebranded the acronym, but the concept remains. These 14 African nations use this currency issued by France, which effectively grants France control over the economies of these countries. Despite being resource-rich, they face poverty and deprivation, resulting in low living standards.
International Involvement
we see the US has the military command called AFRICOM, which covers almost the entirety of Africa except Egypt. Additionally, ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, is a regional bloc comprising 15 nations in Western Africa. China and Russia also have some engagement in the region. The significance of Africa lies in its vast resources: 65% of the world's arable land, 30% of mineral reserves, 8% of natural gas, 12% of oil reserves, and substantial amounts of gold, diamonds, cobalt, platinum, uranium, and rare earth metals used in tech products. The continent's young population of 1.4 billion, with a median age of 19, also holds importance. Focusing on Niger, it holds immense importance due to its uranium reserves. Uranium is crucial for nuclear energy, accounting for a sizeable part of France's electricity generation. Furthermore, Niger could host the Trans Saharan gas pipeline, enhancing its strategic value. The situation in Niger raises the question of potential actions, such as France possibly invading Niger to maintain control over its resources. France's actions in such cases may draw attention to the double standards in international relations. Considering Niger's options, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, is mentioned. Wagner appears to be operating extensively across Africa, supporting governments and rebels in various countries, potentially creating a pro-Russian confederation of states. This could be relevant to Niger's situation. While China is involved economically and in infrastructure development in Africa, its military presence is limited to a naval base in Djibouti. China's collaboration with Russia is deepening, and the Wagner Group might facilitate China's interests in Africa. ECOWAS, with a history of military interventions, might play a role if instructed by external powers. However, it's worth noting that the influence of France and the US could guide ECOWAS actions.
France finds itself in a challenging predicament, as it is determined to secure its advantageous position. The country appears to be contemplating a potential intervention in Niger, possibly involving the delivery of weapons, troops, equipment, and supplies via airborne means. The proposed strategy would likely commence with an aerial campaign, featuring Rafael jets to neutralize air defenses, followed by transport planes deploying soldiers and resources. France's objective would be to swiftly assume control of Niger, with minimal resistance. This scenario presents an interesting dynamic, as it would mark the first direct confrontation between NATO forces and the private Russian paramilitary group, Wagner, operating in conjunction with Niger's military. Wagner seems to be anticipating this possibility and preparing for an impending French intervention. In the event of such a conflict, there could be instances of NATO transport assets being targeted, akin to the current situation in Ukraine but with roles reversed. The stakes for France are substantial; failure to achieve success could lead to a significant setback on various fronts. It could result in loss of prestige, credibility, and access to vital uranium resources. Consequently, France might be left with no alternative but to proceed with the invasion. The wider implications of a conflict in this West African region raise concerns about potential escalation. With France engaged, other nations such as ECOWAS members, the United States, and Germany might also become involved. While the absence of nuclear weapons in Africa mitigates the risk of nuclear escalation, tensions could undoubtedly intensify given the already strained backdrop due to the Ukraine crisis. Moreover, the situation might be further complicated if Poland enters the Ukrainian conflict. While the situation is complex and delicate, the hope is that conflict can be averted. If not, a swift and just resolution is desired, considering the historical context of colonization. It is a situation where events will unfold as they may, and the significance of this matter within the context of global geopolitics is undeniable.
CONCLUSION
The recent events unfolding in Niger, a relatively obscure nation in West Africa, have brought to light a complex web of geopolitical interests and power dynamics. The coup d'état that ousted President Mohammed Basum has triggered a cascade of responses and threats from various global players, primarily France, the United States, and regional organizations like ECOWAS. The situation in Niger has highlighted the intricate blend of historical colonial legacies, resource exploitation, and contemporary military manoeuvring. Niger's strategic significance stems from its vast uranium reserves, which are crucial for France's extensive nuclear energy program. France's deep-rooted historical and neocolonial ties to the region have led to a high-stakes scenario where it is unwilling to let go of its control over Niger. The potential for a French intervention to regain control further adds to the already tense situation. Russia's Wagner Group, a private military company, has emerged as a key player in the region, possibly orchestrating the recent coup and supporting various governments and rebel groups across Africa. Wagner's involvement, backed by Russia's strategic interests, presents an alternative to the Western influence dominant in the continent. China’s presence in Africa, mainly focused on economic and infrastructure development, contrasts with the military interventions seen from other global powers. While not directly involved in the current crisis, China's economic activities remain a significant factor in the broader African geopolitical landscape. The escalating tensions in Niger have raised concerns about the potential for wider conflict, given the involvement of multiple external actors and regional organizations. While the absence of nuclear weapons in the region lessens the risk of global escalation, the situation underscores the delicate balance of power and interests in Africa. Ultimately, the ongoing developments in Niger highlight the persistent struggle for control, influence, and resources in Africa. The nation's complex history, its vital uranium reserves, and the involvement of various international players demonstrate how regional conflicts can quickly evolve into global concerns, with the potential to reshape geopolitical dynamics on a larger scale.